Beliefs about Choice Reversals
Abstract: We study time inconsistency through a dynamic effort choice experiment that links anticipated and actual choice reversals to the demand for commitment devices and flexibility. Prior work, which forces individuals to make precise forecasts, often finds near-complete naivety when comparing predictions to behavior. We instead allow people to express uncertainty about their future actions. We find that uncertainty about future actions is widespread, predicts reversals, and improves forecast accuracy, and that it is systematically related to demand for both commitment and flexibility. Nonetheless, participants frequently demand commitment while assigning essentially zero probability to choosing the options they restrict, which is inconsistent with standard consequentialist models of present bias.
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The virtual seminar will consist of a 60-minute research paper presentation, followed by 15 minutes of Q&A and 15 minutes of discussion with students/junior researchers. During the final 15-minute discussion session, we encourage students and junior researchers to stay and interact with the speaker.