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Strategic Uncertainty and Probabilistic Sophistication

Date: Wednesday, Sep 15, 2021, 14:30 ~ 16:00
Speaker: Takehito MASUDA (Shinshu University)
Location: zoom을 통한 온라인 세미나
Abstract: This paper uses laboratory experiments to study subjects' assessment of uncertainty resulting from strategic and non-strategic decisions of other players. Nonstrategic events are defined by the colors of balls drawn from urns, whereas strategic events are defined by the action choice in Stag Hunt (SH) and Prisoners' Dilemma (PD) games. We elicit subjects' matching probabilities and examine if they satisfy the law of probability including monotonicity and additivity. While the observed patterns of violations from the law are in line with the literature for non-strategic uncertainty, those for strategic uncertainty are substantially different. In particular, we observe a coordination fallacy, a violation of monotonicity whereby the probability weight placed on a symmetric coordination profile of the games exceeds that placed on the corresponding action choice. The violation is found to be severer for an efficient coordination profile.

* 본 세미나는 VEAEBES(Virtual East Asia Experimental and Behavioral Economics Seminar series) 주최로 열리는 세미나입니다.

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