Beliefs from Cues ( joint work with Spencer Kwon)
Abstract: We develop a model of belief formation where normatively irrelevant cues influence which states come to mind. Beliefs depend on representativeness-the cue's similarity to a hypotheses relative to its alternative-and resonance-its ability to evoke many states. We experimentally validate the model using subjective similarity judgments, demonstrating that beliefs shift systematically with measured resonance and representativeness. Applying our framework to standard consumption-savings and risky investment problems, we show cue-based beliefs can organize diverse behavioral phenomena, including experience effects, projection bias, present bias, uninformative advertising, and portfolio under-diversification, as well as generate novel predictions about their scope and magnitude.
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The virtual seminar will consist of a 60-minute research paper presentation, followed by 15 minutes of Q&A and 15 minutes of discussion with students/junior researchers. During the final 15-minute discussion session, we encourage students and junior researchers to stay and interact with the speaker.