Seminars

◈ 주   제 : Firm Employment Dynamics in Kazakhstan after Sudden Russian Immigration - David R. DeRemer, Yelzhas Kadyr, Aigerim Yergabulova
◈ 발표자: Aigerim Yergabulova (KU Leuven)
◈ 일   시 : 2024년 5월 29일 수요일 16:30 ~ 17:45
◈ 장   소 : 우석경제관(223동) 308호
◈ 주   관 : 경제학부, 경제연구소 한국경제혁신센터, SSK, BK21

Firm Employment Dynamics in Kazakhstan after Sudden Russian Immigration

Abstract:

This paper explores firm employment dynamics in a middle-income country after
a sudden migration inflow from a higher-income country. We consider Kazakhstan,
the top destination country for Russians following their exposure to international
sanctions and war mobilization in 2022. Using Kazakhstan’s public business registers
data, we find that the shock of Russian migration leads to substantial increases
in firm employment growth, primarily for small firms. Our identification strategy
exploits variation in the shock’s impact due to substantial geographic dispersion
of the pre-shock Russian diaspora, since Kazakhstan and Russia share the world’s
longest continuous land border. The pre-shock Russian diaspora correlates with
the actual post-shock immigration and exhibits no pre-trends in firm employment
growth. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find large effects of the shock
on the employment growth for Kazakhstan’s firms in the more affected districts, and
we find no effect for medium and large-sized firms. We find large employment growth
in the ICT and accommodation sectors, consistent with the new equilibrium growth
reflecting both increased labor supply and increased demand from immigrants. The
finding of small-firm employment growth in response to the large immigration shock
is consistent with long-standing policy goals of encouraging formal employment and
reducing the administrative burden of cross-border hiring within an economic union.